BLOGGER VS. BLOGGER: CBO Budget Projections Spark Discussion on Health Spending

Recently, the Congressional Budget Office released a budget analysis for fiscal years 2013 to 2023, lowering its past spending projections for Medicare by hundreds of billions of dollars, the New York Times reports.

AHL’s TOP STORY: CBO Issues Updated Spending Projections for Medicare, Medicaid, ACA Over Next Decade

The Congressional Budget Office yesterday lowered its Medicare spending projections for the next decade by $137 billion, noting that federal spending on the program has been “significantly lower” than predicted for the past three years, The Hill‘s “Healthwatch” reports (Viebeck [1], “Healthwatch,” The Hill, 2/5).

According to the report, Medicare spending in fiscal year 2012 grew by just 3%, to $551 billion, the slowest recorded rate of growth since 2000. Despite the slowdown, CBO estimated that total Medicare spending will reach $1.079 trillion in fiscal year 2023 (Reichard [1], CQ HealthBeat, 2/5).

AHL’s TOP STORY: CBO Issues Updated Spending Projections for Medicare, Medicaid Over Next Decade

The Congressional Budget Office yesterday lowered its Medicare spending projections for the next decade by nearly $170 billion, Reuters reports.

AHL’s TOP STORY: CBO Releases Estimates on Effect of Supreme Court Ruling, Repeal Legislation

Last month’s Supreme Court ruling on the Affordable Care Act will result in the overall cost of the law declining by $84 billion, while the estimated number of U.S. residents who will gain insurance under the law dropped by three million, according to updated estimates released yesterday by the Congressional Budget Office, The Hill‘s “Healthwatch” reports (Baker/Viebeck, “Healthwatch,” The Hill, 7/24).

POST-SCOTUS: The Affordable Care Act After the Supreme Court

The Congressional Budget Office today released its updated estimates on the effect of the Affordable Care Act, now that the Supreme Court has affirmed the constitutionality of the individual mandate and established that states can opt out of the law’s Medicaid expansion.

Below are highlights of the report. The Supreme Court’s ruling on the Medicaid expansion:

• Will reduce the cost of the insurance coverage provisions in the ACA by $84 billion by reducing federal spending on Medicaid and CHIP by $289 billion;
• Will reduce the number of U.S. residents expected to be covered by Medicaid or CHIP by six million;
• Will increase enrollment in the state-based exchanges by three million; and
• Will increase the number of uninsured U.S. residents by three million.

[Ed. Note: See the earlier post on the effect of legislation (HR 6079) that would repeal the ACA for CBO’s estimates on the effect of the law on insurance coverage.]

The report speculates on the effect of the court ruling that states can opt out of the Medicaid expansion. It estimates that:

• About one-third of newly eligible U.S. residents — those with annual incomes of up to 138% of federal poverty level — will live in states that choose to participate fully in the expansion;
• About half will live in states that partially expand coverage to less than 138% of FPL; and
• About one-sixth will live in states that will not expand Medicaid coverage in the next 10 years.

The court’s ruling on the individual mandate — that it is constitutional under Congress’ power to tax, and not under the Constitution’s commerce clause — will not have any effect on coverage levels, according to the report.

The report notes that “what states will be able to do and what they will decide to do” in regard to the Medicaid expansion “are both highly uncertain.”  It also states that “this analysis should not be viewed as representing a single definitive interpretation of how the ACA should or will be implement in light of the court’s decision.”

by Anthony Wilson, Editor

AHL’s Top Story: Fewer Smokers Will Increase Medicare Spending, CBO Report Says

Increasing the federal excise tax on cigarettes by 50 cents per pack would eventually increase Medicare and Social Security spending, because smokers would be healthier and live longer, according to a Congressional Budget Office report released yesterday, the Fiscal Times reports (Pianin, Fiscal Times, 6/14).

The report found that the tax increase would create short-term deficit reductions. However, by 2085, the costs associated with individuals living longer and consuming more Medicare and Social Security services would outweigh the health benefits and tax revenues, causing the deficit to increase slightly.

BLOGGER VS. BLOGGER: Does the ‘New Math’ on Health Reform Add Up?

A report released on Tuesday by the GOP trustee for Medicare and Social Security suggests that the federal health reform law will add between $340 billion and $530 billion to the federal deficit. The report was authored by Charles Blahous, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, who served as an economic adviser under President George W. Bush.

AHL’s TOP STORY: Overhaul Could Cause 20M To Lose, or 3M To Gain, Employer-Sponsored Health Coverage, CBO Study Finds

The federal health reform law could result in 20 million U.S. residents losing employer-sponsored health coverage or three million individuals gaining such coverage in 2019, according to a Congressional Budget Office and Joint Committee on Taxation report released yesterday, The Hill‘s “Healthwatch” reports.

Entitlement Programs on the Chopping Block

Time notes that recent CBO figures show that Congress “could cut all non-defense discretionary spending and we’d still be underwater in a decade.” According to CBO Director Dough Elmendorf, it might be time to consider changes to entitlements (such as Medicare) and defense spending.

The Blog Line, 1-20

The following blogs discuss the political landscape following the House repeal vote, how exactly repeal would affect the deficit and whether everyone is premature in their fervent acceptance of health IT.